U.S. New Home Market Cap Highest Since August 2006

The market for new homes in the U.S. is continuing its recent torrid pace. Based on the latest sales data reported by the U.S. Census Bureau, the preliminary nominal estimate of the market capitalization for new homes was $30.6 billion in August 2020.

Taking the trailing twelve-month average of the market cap for new homes to factor out seasonality in the data while factoring in data revisions in previous months, we estimate August 2020’s adjusted market cap to be $25.76 billion. In nominal terms, this is the highest this figure has been since August 2006, which can be seen in a chart showing the historical market cap data going back to January 1976.

Perhaps more remarkably, the median sale price of new homes sold in the U.S. fell to an initial estimate of $312,700 in August 2020. The initial estimate of the average sale price of a new home sold

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Areas at Highest Risk of a Foreclosure Crisis

Americans could face as many as 1.4 million foreclosures if homeowners remain unable to make their mortgage payments. That is according to a recent report from Realtor.com.

As was reported earlier this week, the number of FHA loans in forbearance remains higher than the share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (and, based on said report, those also are increasing at a higher rate). Realtor.com points out that FHA loans generally are given to first-time, minority, and lower-income homeowners. Thus, those groups are most in danger of losing their homes to foreclosure. Realtor.com editor Clare Trapasso reported that some 17.4% of the roughly 8 million FHA mortgages were delinquent in August (About 11% of those were more than 90 days delinquent), and that these loans, whose down payments are sometimes as low as 3.5% made up about 15% of all  first-mortgage servicing market loans (37.1 million).

“FHA loans are the

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Trade Deficit Deepest, Home Prices Highest, in History

Tuesday, September 29, 2020

Market indexes began this Tuesday morning roughly flat, ahead of a couple key data points released before the bell: Advance Trade in Goods for August and Case-Shiller Home Prices for July. Neither will carry the impact of the mass of jobs data we’ll get beginning tomorrow, but both demonstrate economic implications for the U.S. going forward.

The Advance Trade in Goods number for last month was, simply, the deepest deficit on record: -$82.9 billion. This is notably worse than the $78.9 billion expected by analysts and the downwardly revised -$80.1 billion for July. Imports rose 3.1%, led by Consumer Goods and Autos, up 7% and 6.2%, respectively. By comparison, Exports rose 2.8%, with Industrial Supplies 10.6% higher but Capital Goods down 3.9% on the month.

What these numbers suggest is that the U.S. is bouncing back from the coronavirus pandemic more slowly than other regions around

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New home sales surge to highest level since before the Great Recession

The numbers: Sales of new single-family homes in August exceeded an annual rate of 1 million for the first time since 2006, as buyers were forced into the market for newly-constructed properties thanks to the dearth of home listings.

New home sales occurred at a seasonally-adjusted, annual rate of 1.011 million, the Census Bureau reported Thursday. That represents a 4.8% increase from an upwardly-revised pace of 965,000 homes in July. Compared with last year, new home sales are up 43%.

Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected home sales to drop to median pace of 900,000.

What happened: Not all parts of the country saw an uptick in sales despite the historically high rate nationally. New home sales fell 21.4% in the Midwest and 1.7% in the West. Comparatively, the South saw the biggest increase in sales with a 13.4% jump, while sales volumes rose by 5% in the Northeast.

The

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New home sales surge to highest level since before the Great Recession, as buyers are pushed into the new construction market

The numbers: Sales of new single-family homes in August exceeded an annual rate of 1 million for the first time since 2006, as buyers were forced into the market for newly-constructed properties thanks to the dearth of home listings.

New home sales occurred at a seasonally-adjusted, annual rate of 1.011 million, the Census Bureau reported Thursday. That represents a 4.8% increase from an upwardly-revised pace of 965,000 homes in July. Compared with last year, new home sales are up 43%.

Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected home sales to drop to median pace of 900,000.

What happened: Not all parts of the country saw an uptick in sales despite the historically high rate nationally. New home sales fell 21.4% in the Midwest and 1.7% in the West. Comparatively, the South saw the biggest increase in sales with a 13.4% jump, while sales volumes rose by 5% in the Northeast.

The

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