Home Values Jump, Trade Deficit Plummets

Tuesday, October 6, 2020

A new report from analytics firm CoreLogic on Home Values this morning showed the highest rise in two years for the month of August: +5.9% year over year, +1.0% in just the past month. Two big drivers appear to be the +8.6% year-over-year spike in entry-level home ownership (meaning Millennials are at last making the jump in meaningful numbers to real estate purchases), and the “mass exodus” from crowded cities like New York in favor of more space, following the initial impact of the coronavirus pandemic: suburban homes with big back yards.

Inventories were down in August 17% year over year, as home builders from entry-level specialists D.R. Horton DHI to luxury developers Toll Brothers TOL scramble to make land purchases and break new ground. This industry was affected by this past spring’s shutdown, as land-buying firms were not considered part of the “essential workers” allowed

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Trade Deficit Deepest, Home Prices Highest, in History

Tuesday, September 29, 2020

Market indexes began this Tuesday morning roughly flat, ahead of a couple key data points released before the bell: Advance Trade in Goods for August and Case-Shiller Home Prices for July. Neither will carry the impact of the mass of jobs data we’ll get beginning tomorrow, but both demonstrate economic implications for the U.S. going forward.

The Advance Trade in Goods number for last month was, simply, the deepest deficit on record: -$82.9 billion. This is notably worse than the $78.9 billion expected by analysts and the downwardly revised -$80.1 billion for July. Imports rose 3.1%, led by Consumer Goods and Autos, up 7% and 6.2%, respectively. By comparison, Exports rose 2.8%, with Industrial Supplies 10.6% higher but Capital Goods down 3.9% on the month.

What these numbers suggest is that the U.S. is bouncing back from the coronavirus pandemic more slowly than other regions around

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