Why The U.S. Commercial Real Estate Bubble Is About To Burst

In the summer of 2019, I wrote a Forbes piece in which I warned about the U.S. commercial real estate bubble that was inflating and why I believed that it would end badly. Around the same time, I wrote another Forbes piece warning that there was about a two-thirds probability of a powerful recession within the next year and that U.S. commercial real estate was one of the bubbles that would burst as a result. In the current piece, I will explain why the U.S. commercial real estate bubble is likely to burst in the near future as a result of the coronavirus pandemic-induced recession.

As a result of the Federal Reserve’s stimulative monetary policies, U.S. commercial property prices have more than doubled since their 2009 low:

Ultra-low interest rates encouraged a borrowing boom in which commercial real estate loans at U.S.

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These cities are at risk of a housing bubble as home prices inflate worldwide

A Canadian flag flies amid the Toronto skyline

Roberto Machado Noa | Getty Images

Despite a global recession brought on by the coronavirus pandemic, home values in major markets around the world continue to rise, with some at risk of overheating.

Of 25 major cities analyzed, more than half are either at risk of a housing bubble or are overvalued, according to UBS’ Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2020. The index looked at typical signs of a bubble, which include a decoupling of prices from local incomes and rents, and imbalances in the real economy, such as excessive lending and construction activity.

Toronto is the only major North American city in the study that was found to be at risk of a housing bubble. Vancouver, British Columbia, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and New York are considered overvalued, but not at risk of a bubble. Boston is at fair value, and

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